Kenya Baseline "State of the City" Survey
The urban transition is well under way in Kenya, and urbanisation is projected to continue at a rapid pace: It is estimated that urban areas will account for 45 percent of the population (16.5 million people) by 2015, and 54 percent of the population (23.6 million people) by 2030. The urban transition in Kenya will play an important role in determining the country's growth prospects and social stability. However, Kenyan cities are not currently able to meet the rapidly growing demands of residents and firms for services because they are suffering from major infrastructure bottlenecks, weak finances, and poor management. The government is convinced that transformation of municipal management will require deeper institutional reforms and much more intensive training and capacity building in finance, participatory planning, project management, and service delivery. It is also acutely aware of infrastructure shortfalls and the need to step up capital investment in these municipalities. For this reason, this project supports a comprehensive and systematic programme for enhancing the capacity of urban municipalities and improving local service delivery.
The objective of the proposed Cities Alliance grant is to produce baselines of the demographic, infrastructure, economic, and management profile of six of the 15 large Kenyan cities participating in the Kenya Municipal Programme. Financing from development partners will be used to prepare this baseline in the remaining nine cities. The findings of the surveys are expected to be presented in a variety of formats, including a main report summarising the data from all seven cities, detailed city-specific reports, and a two-page summary of key data called "State of the City" to allow readers to quickly compare the situation across municipalities.
The methodology involves four major tasks. The first is to identify the relevant information that is already available from primary sources on the demographic, economic, and infrastructure profile of cities to be covered. The second is to develop and administer a representative household survey to fill the data gaps. The third is to analyse the data and compile the results. The fourth is to analyse the data in collaboration with universities to explore a variety of questions on urban development.
Expected Impacts and Results
A. Outcomes 1) Baseline prepared that together with the results of follow up surveys will allow for assessment of the effectiveness of the KMP, KISIP, and NMSP in meeting their objectives; 2) Deeper understanding of the cities' growth dynamics and specific challenges to improving delivery of services and quality of life for residents, which is essential to preparing city development strategies; 3) Creation of a stronger empirical basis for dialogue among stakeholders and for design of interventions to promote good governance and improve service delivery. B. Indicators 1) Production of city development strategies, drawing on input from the surveys; 2) Stakeholders, including the World Bank, using the reports and data in their dialogue with the government and others, measured by reports in the media clicks on the website; 3) Researchers using the data, measured by the number of peer-reviewed journal articles that cite the data within five years of its release.